1. Spot, futures, ETFs and bullion
- Spot XAU/USD – the over-the-counter price most FX/CFD brokers quote. Trades nearly 24 hours, Sunday evening to Friday afternoon ET.
- COMEX futures (GC) – exchange-traded, quoted for a delivery month. The front contract usually sits $15–30 above spot (carry), so always check which price a level refers to. Every H79 plan states whether its levels are spot or futures.
- ETFs – GLD and IAU track bullion; GDX tracks miners (a leveraged, equity-flavored bet on gold).
- Physical bars and coins – no counterparty risk, but you pay a dealer premium and a bid/ask spread on the way in and out.
2. Units and quotes
- 1 troy ounce = 31.1035 grams – the unit behind every USD/oz quote.
- 1 kilo bar ≈ 32.15 oz.
- Bid/ask: you buy at the ask and sell at the bid; the gap is your immediate cost.
- Pip/tick: on most CFDs a $1 move in XAU/USD on 1 lot (100 oz) is $100.
3. What moves gold
- Real yields: the single biggest driver. Gold pays nothing, so higher inflation-adjusted yields raise the cost of holding it.
- The dollar (DXY): a stronger dollar usually means weaker gold, and vice versa.
- The Fed: hikes and hawkish guidance weigh on gold; cuts and dovish pivots support it. Watch CPI, PCE and payrolls for what they imply about the path of rates.
- Inflation: a long-run tailwind as a store of value – but in the short run a hot CPI often hits gold because it lifts rate expectations.
- Central-bank buying and ETF flows: structural demand that can put a floor under price.
- Risk sentiment: safe-haven bids during crises – see below.
⚔️ War and geopolitics: how gold really reacts
Conflict doesn't automatically send gold higher. War headlines hit gold through several channels at once – whichever is strongest sets the direction.
As uncertainty rises, money rotates out of stocks into gold (no credit risk, deep liquidity) → supportive.
Fighting in oil-producing regions lifts crude and inflation, giving the Fed a reason to hold or hike; real yields rise → pressure on gold.
The dollar gets a haven bid too; a stronger dollar makes gold pricier for non-US buyers → caps gold.
Prolonged tension pushes central banks to add gold – long-term demand that doesn't care much about yields → a floor under price.
When FX reserves can be frozen, countries cut dollar exposure and buy gold → medium- to long-term support.
Risk-off: gold, the dollar and Treasuries are bid. Risk-on (de-escalation, ceasefire): money flows back to equities and gold gives up its risk premium.
price grinds higher→Event hits
price spikes→Market digests
profit-taking, the spike fades
That's why chasing the first war headline is usually a poor entry.
- Russia–Ukraine, Feb 2022: the LBMA PM price rose 6% in February to $1,910/oz – the biggest monthly gain since May 2021 – as haven demand outweighed higher nominal yields and a firmer dollar; gold ETFs added 35 tonnes. World Gold Council ↗ Gold hit an intraday high of $1,974/oz on Feb 24, 2022. OMFIF/WGC ↗
- US–Israel war with Iran (from Feb 28, 2026): the counter-example – oil surged but gold lost about a fifth of its value after the fighting began, as the oil → inflation → Fed-hike channel overpowered haven demand. Investing.com ↗
Latest geopolitical headlines for gold: Macro news →
5. Chart basics
Candlesticks
Each candle shows the open, high, low and close for its timeframe. Long wicks mark levels where buyers or sellers were pushed back hard.
Support and resistance
Support is where price has repeatedly bounced; resistance is where it has repeatedly stalled. Buy dips near support, sell rallies near resistance – and always define where you're wrong.
Moving averages
The H79 plan uses SMA 34/89 on lower timeframes to define the channel, plus the 20/50 EMA on H4 and daily. Price below both, with the fast below the slow, is a downtrend.
Bollinger Bands (90, 2)
A slow 90-period band: the upper and lower bands mark stretched levels where mean-reversion entries line up with the trend.
RSI and MACD
RSI above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold. A MACD cross above its signal line shows building upside momentum. Use them as triggers at your levels, not as signals on their own.
All of these are preloaded on the Charts page.
6. Common mistakes
- Chasing a headline spike.
- Holding full size through CPI, payrolls or the FOMC.
- Trading without a stop, or widening it when price gets close.
- Confusing futures and spot levels (a $20+ gap).
- Oversizing – risking more than 1–2% of the account on one idea.