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Gold macro news & Fed watch
The stories that actually move XAU/USD – each with a source link and a read on the gold impact. Updated: —. Times in US Eastern (ET).
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🎯 CME FedWatch – rate odds
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💡 Why it matters for gold: FedWatch shows how the market is betting on the Fed to hold, cut or hike. Rising cut odds → lower yields and a softer dollar → tailwind for gold. Rising hike odds → firmer dollar, pressure on gold. Watch how the odds shift after CPI, payrolls and Fed speakers.
🔗 Gold vs. real yields vs. the dollar
XAU/USD (gold)
US 10-year note (price CFD)
DXY – US dollar index
Real yield (10-year TIPS) = nominal yield minus expected inflation. Gold pays no coupon, so higher real yields raise the cost of holding it – usually bearish. Latest: 2.91% (Oct 9, 2026).
Bond prices move opposite yields. The middle chart is the note's price: a rising price (falling yield) tends to move with gold.
A strong DXY usually weighs on dollar-priced gold, and vice versa. The inverse link isn't fixed – it weakens when central banks buy heavily or during geopolitical shocks.
📰 Live headlines TradingView
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice.