Gold macro brief, Sep 16, 2026 – FOMC hikes 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% (12–0)
FOMC hikes 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% (12–0)
At its Sep 15–16 meeting the FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, effective Sep 17. Statement: inflation remains elevated and the Fed 'will return inflation to price stability'.
Gold impact: Fed tightening lifts yields and supports the dollar – usually a headwind for gold.
September dot plot: 4.1% median for end-2026 – one more hike
Per the Sep 16 Summary of Economic Projections: the median end-2026 rate is 4.1%, 2027: 4.1%, 2028: 3.9%, 2029: 3.6%, longer run 3.2%. 16 of 18 participants see one more hike in 2026; 4 see two.
Gold impact: A 'higher for longer' path keeps real yields high – bearish for gold if it plays out.
🔗 Source: Federal Reserve – Summary of Economic Projections · J.P. Morgan AM – FOMC Statement September 2026
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