Gold Fades Its Asian Bounce, Slips to a Fresh Daily Low Ahead of CPI

Overnight: Tuesday's US session sold gold off from 4,193 (8:30 AM ET) to 4,148 (1:50 PM ET), settling near 4,162 – a second straight down day, roughly 0.8% lower over two sessions.

Asian session: Gold opened at 4,163 at 6:00 PM ET and slipped to the Asian low of 4,145 at 9:45 PM ET before bouncing to the Asian high of 4,172 at 11:15 PM ET – about five hours after the open – on dovish comments from the NY Fed's Williams. Sellers then picked the prior move back up, and Asia closed at 4,149.

London morning: High of 4,159 at 4:15 AM ET, low of 4,141 at 6:25 AM ET – the low of the day. Heading into 7:00 AM ET, gold was hovering around 4,138–4,144.

Why gold is lower: A slightly softer dollar (DXY ~102.1) and long-end Treasury yields down 3–4 bps kept the slide contained. But Brent above $106 on renewed Middle East attacks revived inflation worries. Williams sees one more hike this year but none in 2027, while Waller and Goolsbee leaned hawkish on AI-driven price pressure. Markets price roughly 90% odds of a December hike – higher rates remain the main headwind for gold.

Today's main event: September CPI at 8:30 AM ET: headline est. 3.6% y/y; core est. +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. A hot print would lift the dollar and yields and pressure gold; a soft one would support a bounce.

45-minute technicals: Price is below MA34 (4,162) and MA89 (4,176), hugging the lower BB90 (2 SD) at 4,142 (mid 4,176, upper 4,211). Daily pivots: P 4,171 · R1 4,194 · S1 4,139 · S2 4,116. Into the NY open, expect chop between 4,139 and 4,163 until CPI: a hot core print could break S1 toward 4,116; a soft one could lift price back to 4,162–4,171.