Gold, Oct 15 London: bounce tags the 4,160 sell zone and stalls under the mid-band ahead of PPI

Price action: From 2:45 AM ET, spot gold climbed steadily from ~4,136, cleared 4,150 around 4:00 AM ET and hit ~4,160 at 4:25 AM ET – right at the bottom of the 4,155–4,168 sell zone. It then slipped back to ~4,151–4,153 by 4:55 AM ET, about +16 points over the first two hours of London.

News in the window: The dollar and Treasury yields kept easing: DXY ~102.06 (−0.5%), U.S. 10-year ~5.09% (−10 bps), per CNBC. Brent fell ~2% to ~$103.8 even as Hormuz stays tense (a Singapore ship sunk, Iran threatening U.S. warships), as Washington weighs easing tanker sanctions. European stocks opened lower after Asia's tech selloff, sending money into bonds.

Why gold rose: Lower yields and a softer dollar made bullion more attractive. Fed officials Daly and Bowman signaled no rush to hike in October, trimming hike bets (FedWatch ~27%, per CNBC/Reuters). Cheaper oil also eased inflation worries. Buyers lifted gold into the bounce but couldn't clear the mid-band cluster.

Versus the 2:45 AM ET plan: On script: the plan was to sell a bounce into the mid-band. Gold rallied to ~4,160 and stalled just under the 45m/2H BB mid (~4,155), overlapping the 50–61.8% retracement of the 4,224 → 4,073 drop (~4,149–4,166). Shorts filled at the bottom of the zone; TP1 4,140 not hit yet, stop 4,178 untouched. The 4,097–4,110 buy zone did not fill.

Next few hours: 45m through 4H remain below the BB mid, so the primary trend is down; the 15m up-channel is just a pullback. The 3:30 AM ET 45m candle closed right above the mid-band, and the 4:15 AM ET candle is red back below it – a close under ~4,155 at 5:00 AM ET would firm up the H79 sell signal. The 45m MACD is still positive, so keep size small. Expect chop between 4,140 and 4,165 into the data.

U.S. session: PPI (est. +0.6% m/m, core +0.3%) and retail sales (est. +0.3%) at 8:30 AM ET. No new trades 8:00–8:45 AM ET. A hot PPI lifts the dollar and yields → gold likely back to 4,140, then 4,125, with the 4,097–4,110 buy zone below. A soft print could test 4,168–4,178; a 1-hour close above 4,175 cancels the short. After the release, sell only — enter once price is in the zone and a 45m or 1H candle closes red, or a 1H candle pierces above the BB90 mid and closes back below it; a close above it means sit the session out.