Gold Plan for New York Pre-Market: Bounce Capped Under 4,160, Sell the Rip Around PPI and Retail Sales

After the 8:30 AM ET data – PPI and retail sales (9:35 AM ET update; 3h filled ~11:37 AM ET): The numbers: September PPI rose 1.3% m/m (est. 0.6%, prior revised to 0.5%) and 6.3% y/y, the biggest annual gain since 2022; core PPI (ex food and energy) +0.7% (est. 0.3%); retail sales +0.8% (est. 0.3%) and ex-autos +0.9% (est. 0.6%). All four beat (BLS, Census via CNBC and Kitco). Spot path (CNBC XAU=, 5-minute bar opens): 3h before, 5:30 AM ET 4,158.60 · 1h before, 7:30 AM ET 4,155.70 · 30 min before, 8:00 AM ET 4,144.50 · release, 8:30 AM ET 4,149.80 · 30 min after, 9:00 AM ET 4,150.30 · 1h after, 9:30 AM ET 4,156.20 · 3h after, 11:30 AM ET 4,154.40 (+0.11%). The release bar flushed to 4,138.10 and snapped back; the post-data high was 4,167.10 at 9:15 AM ET, and spot was back at 4,151.60 by 9:34 AM ET (gold-api.com 4,154.70). Why it went the 'wrong' way: hot data should mean a firmer dollar, higher yields and weaker gold, and gold did drop $11 in the first five minutes. But traders looked under the hood. Energy drove most of the PPI jump as the Iran war keeps fuel prices high; PPI ex food, energy and trade rose just 0.5%, and retail sales ex autos and gas rose only 0.25% after roughly 1.1% in August, a sign consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile the tech selloff (Nasdaq futures −1.3%) pushed money into Treasuries: the 10-year yield fell 14 bps to 5.05% and the DXY slipped 0.5% to 102.07. Lower yields lifted gold even as October hike odds rose to about 34% (CME FedWatch via CNBC). Through the H79 lens: the pop stalled right at the 4H MA89/BB90 mid cluster (4,168–4,170), just under the 78.6% Fib at 4,171, which is the classic downtrend bounce failing at the higher-timeframe mid. Spot sits on the 45m mid (4,150) and below the 1H mid/MA89 (4,158). The 15m/30m channel is still up (price above the MA34/MA89), but both MACDs are below their signal lines and RSI is neutral at 52–58. The short isn't confirmed yet; it needs a red 45m or 1H close back below 4,150. The 8:15 AM ET plan was short 4,158–4,168 (stop 4,178) and long 4,092–4,102 (stop 4,080).

From the 6:47 AM ET note into the New York open: Gold was at 4,152.50 at 6:47 AM ET. It edged up to 4,158.70 at 7:01 AM ET but couldn't get back to 4,160–4,161 (the 11:00 PM ET Asian high and the 5:35 AM ET London high). Sellers returned from 7:30 AM ET and pushed spot down to 4,144.30 at 8:01 AM ET, just as U.S. desks came online. At 8:17 AM ET spot was 4,149.60 (CNBC XAU= 4,151.66 at 8:19 AM ET; gold-api.com 4,155.30 at 8:21 AM ET), still up about 1.1% on the day. December COMEX gold was 4,169.60, roughly $21.80 over spot.

Why gold is where it is: The day's tailwinds are still in place: the DXY is at 102.13 (−0.4%), off its 18-month high; the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.081% (−10.9 bps), around a three-week low; and Brent is at 104.75 (−1.2%). Fed officials Daly and Bowman have signaled no rush to hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting. But risk appetite soured into the open: Nasdaq futures are down more than 1% on worries about AI companies' heavy borrowing, with S&P 500 futures off 0.3%, and the dollar ticked back up from 102.03 to 102.13. With PPI and retail sales minutes away, longs took profits into the 4,152–4,160 resistance cluster – the BB90 mid on the 45-minute, 2-hour, 3-hour and 1-hour charts.

The 8:30 AM ET game plan (PPI + retail sales): Into the data (8:00–8:45 AM ET): no new positions. ForexFactory consensus: PPI +0.6% m/m (prior 0.4%), core PPI +0.3% (prior 0.2%), retail sales +0.3% (prior 1.2%), core retail sales +0.6% (prior 1.4%), alongside jobless claims (199K) and the Philly Fed (28.2). Scenario 1 – hot PPI / strong spending: the dollar and yields pop, gold likely breaks 4,136–4,140 (50% Fib · 30m mid/MA89) and heads to 4,114 (daily pivot), then the 4,092–4,102 buy zone. Scenario 2 – soft PPI / weak spending: gold bounces into 4,158–4,171, which is the high-probability H79 SELL area enter once price is in the zone and a 45m or 1H candle closes red, or a 1H candle pierces above the BB90 mid and closes back below it. Only a 1H close above 4,171 (4H mid, 78.6% Fib) cancels the short and opens 4,197–4,202.

Technicals: Per the H79 rule, the 45m (BB90 mid 4,152), 1H (4,159), 2H (4,154), 3H (4,159) and 4H (4,170) are all trading in the lower half of their bands – the primary trend is down and the 15m/5m bounce is just a pullback. The 7:15–8:00 AM ET 45m candle tagged the mid area (high 4,158) and closed red at 4,144.80 below it; the 7:00 AM ET 1H candle also closed red at 4,144.80 under its 4,159 mid – the H79 sell confirmation. The 30m and 15m MACD have crossed down (histogram −1.0 / −1.5), while the 45m MACD is still positive but has shrunk from +5.4 to +1.1; RSI(14) is 57 on the 45m and 56 on the 1H – neither overbought nor oversold. Fibonacci of the 4,197 (Oct 13) → 4,074 drop: 50% 4,136, 61.8% 4,150 (where price sits), 78.6% 4,171. Daily pivots: P 4,114 · R1 4,154 · R2 4,202 · S1 4,065.