🎯 H79 Gold Plan· Ngọc Huy

Gold 3h After U.S. Data (NY Midday): ~4,154 (+0.11%), H79 Still Selling 4,150–4,160

3h after U.S. data (11:37 AM ET, NY midday)

Move: Release 4,149.8 → peak 4,167 → ~4,154 at 3h (+0.11% vs the print).

Why: Hot PPI/retail, but the 10Y yield and DXY fell as money fled AI stocks; yields later ticked back, so gold eased from the peak.

Plan: H79 still SELL 4,150–4,160, stop 4,171.

Gold 45-minute chart Oct 15, New York morning session (US open): post-PPI pop stalled at 4,162–4,167; sell zone 4,154–4,164, buy zone 4,092–4,102
Bias: 🔻 3h after data: ~4,154 (+0.11%) after 4,167 peak – primary trend still down
🔴 SELL zone 4,150–4,160 | SL 4,171 | TP1 4,138 → TP2 4,114
🟢 BUY zone 4,092–4,102 | SL 4,080 | TP1 4,128 → TP2 4,150
⚠️ Key risk: 3h (~11:37 AM ET): still short 4,150–4,160 (stop 4,171) on a red 45m/1H close below the mid; cancel on a 1H close above 4,171. Trim ahead of Warsh at 11:30 PM ET.
💲 ✅ Spot XAU/USD prices

🌍 Market Picture

As of 10:20 AM ET, Oct 15

DXY 102.04 ↓US10Y 5.058% ↓Brent 105.2 ↓Nasdaq −1.2%S&P 500 7,742 −0.36%

Arrows: vs. prior close

Risk appetite is still weak: the AI selloff rolls on (Nasdaq −1.2% at the open), and the bid for Treasuries has the 10-year at 5.04–5.06%, around a three-week low. Since 10:00 AM ET, though, yields and the DXY (102.04) have firmed and Nasdaq futures have bounced, draining some of gold's haven bid. Brent is at $105.20 as the U.S. reportedly weighs renewed Iran strikes with the GBU-43. A 6.3% annual PPI keeps October hike odds near 34% – a longer-run headwind for gold.

Sources: CNBC – Yields · CNBC – AI stocks · CNBC – Iran · CNBC – PPI

Sources

More details

🧭 Plan & scenarios

  • The data: PPI +1.3% (est. 0.6%), core PPI +0.7% (est. 0.3%), retail sales +0.8% (est. 0.3%).
  • The tape: 4,149.8 at the 8:30 AM ET release → low 4,138 → high 4,167 (9:15 AM ET) → ~4,154 three hours later.
  • Why: energy drove the PPI beat, AI stocks got sold and money rotated into Treasuries → yields and the DXY dropped and gold popped; once yields bounced, gold faded.
  • Levels: resistance 4,164–4,171; support 4,138 → 4,114 → 4,092–4,102.
  • Risk: Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 11:30 PM ET tonight (high impact); I'd size down.

💡 Our take

Trade the plan, not the noise.

Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.

⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.

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