Warsh Gives No Rate Signal, Dollar Slips – Gold at 4,183: A Lasting Turn Needs a Daily Close Above ~4,265
What Warsh said: At the IMF in Bangkok, Warsh said that since the September FOMC 'the world has broadly conformed to our expectations,' that the Fed 'would deliver price stability,' and that he doesn't 'believe in pre-judging meetings,' with judgments at the October and December meetings. He stressed the investment surge and said AI will hit demand before supply (FXStreet). No fresh hike signal.
The week in one candle: Last week's candle (ended Oct 9) closed GREEN: 4,142.34 → 4,193.83. This week opened 4,193.83, hit 4,074.12 after hot CPI/PPI, closed Thursday at 4,170.25 (+1.6%) and trades near 4,183 – a long lower wick, roughly flat on the week.
Long-term reversal? What confirms, what denies: Positive: holding above the weekly MA89 (~3,987), a sharp bounce off 4,074 and a break of the down-trendline from 4,197. Not enough yet: price is below the daily MA89 (~4,264) and daily BB90 mid (~4,261), and 4,177–4,186 is unbroken. Confirms: a daily close above 4,197, then above ~4,265. Denies: a weekly close under 4,074.
Next week's key US data: Light slate: jobless claims (Thu 8:30 AM ET), S&P Global flash PMIs (Fri 9:45 AM ET), final UMich sentiment (Fri 10:00 AM ET). Fed blackout starts Oct 17 ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC. ForexFactory's next-week calendar isn't out yet.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 12:00 AM ET, Oct 16
Arrows: vs. prior close
Warsh offered no rate roadmap – only that the Fed will deliver price stability and decide at the October and December meetings – and the dollar slipped to 101.85 (FXStreet). Hot September PPI (1.3% m/m) didn't stop the 10-year from easing to about 5.07%, a 3-week low, with the DXY off its 18-month high (CNBC). The AI-stock selloff keeps a haven bid alive, and October hike odds sit near 29%. Gold's bounce is constructive, but the daily trend is still below its MA89 – a positive signal, not yet a long-term reversal.
Sources: FXStreet – Warsh at the IMF · CNBC – Yields fall after PPI · CNBC – Dollar off 18-month high · CNBC – AI tech rout
Sources
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- Data/news: Warsh said the Fed would 'deliver price stability' and he doesn't 'believe in pre-judging meetings,' with judgments at the October and December meetings (FXStreet). DXY 101.85 (−0.2%), 10-year 5.069%, gold 4,183 (+0.3%).
- Price path: 11:27 PM ET ~4,170 → 12:00 AM ET ~4,183; the dollar eased after the remarks – no hawkish shock.
- Why: no fresh hike signal, yields at a 3-week low, the dollar off its 18-month high and the AI-stock selloff all lean gold-positive.
- Levels: ceiling 4,177–4,186 / 4,197; a lasting turn needs a daily close above ~4,265 (daily MA89/BB90); a weekly close under 4,074 denies it.
- Risk: flash PMIs Fri Oct 23 (9:45 AM ET) and the Oct 27–28 FOMC (FedWatch ~29% hike odds) – Fed blackout starts Oct 17.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.