H79 Gold Plan – London session, Oct 16: Up-Channel Holds 4,170 – Buy Dips at 4,158–4,165, Sell 4,198–4,208
How the last calls played out: Thursday's London short (4,155–4,168) hit TP1 4,140 on the 8:30 AM ET PPI print – about +21 points, runner to breakeven. The 6:47 AM ET short (4,160–4,170) tagged TP1 4,153 at 9:30 AM ET – about +12 points, TP2 4,141 missed by 3. The Asian-session short (4,165–4,175) hit TP1 4,149 – about +21 points, runner out at breakeven. The New York short lost: a 1H close at 4,173 over the 4,171 cancel level (4:00 PM ET) – out for −8.
The London setup: Warsh gave nothing away on rates, the dollar slid to a near two-week low (DXY 101.83) and the 10-year eased to 5.077% – gold has held above 4,170 since. The 5m/15m/30m have flipped to an up-channel (price over MA34, MA34 over MA89) and the 45m through 4H all sit in the upper half of their BB90. Bias is to buy dips into the mid-band cluster; shorts only at the 45m/1H upper band.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 2:45 AM ET, Oct 16
Arrows: vs. prior close
Fed Chair Warsh gave nothing away on an October hike at his IMF fireside chat, and the dollar got sold – the DXY is near 101.83 and on track for its first weekly loss in five, with the 10-year back to about 5.077% (CNBC). Asian stocks bounced and S&P futures are flat; Brent holds near $105.30 with Hormuz flows at roughly 68% of normal and UKMTO calling the threat 'severe'. Gold is still down about 0.5% on the week, so Friday profit-taking is the risk to watch.
Sources: CNBC – Gold & dollar · CNBC – Warsh at the IMF · CNBC – Dollar week · CNBC – Oil · Middle East Eye – Hormuz
Sources
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold gains on softer dollar, but heads for weekly fall
- CNBC – Warsh: 'I don't prejudge meetings'
- FXStreet – $4,200 back in sight after Warsh's silence on rates
- CNBC (Reuters) – Dollar heads for first weekly loss in five
- CNBC (Reuters) – Oil edges down, Brent near $105
- Middle East Eye – UKMTO: Hormuz shipping threat 'severe'
- ForexFactory – U.S. economic calendar
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The data: Warsh at the IMF (11:30 PM ET) gave no October hike signal – DXY 101.83 (−0.23%), 10-year 5.077%, spot gold +0.19%.
- The tape: 4,147.80 low (9:37 PM ET) → 4,178 at 10:55 PM ET → 4,184.10 high (12:05 AM ET) → 4,169–4,180 range → ~4,178 at 2:45 AM ET.
- Why: a softer dollar after Warsh and easing yields keep gold above the BB90 mid on every frame from 45m to 4H – dips are buys inside the channel.
- Levels: resistance 4,184 (R1) → 4,197 → 4,204–4,208 (sell zone); support 4,165–4,158 (buy zone) → 4,148 → 4,131 (daily pivot).
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data left today; the Fed blackout starts Saturday – Friday profit-taking and Hormuz/oil headlines can whip price.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.