H79 Gold Plan – Asia Session (Sunday Evening ET), Oct 18: Weekly Open Pops $20 to 4,184 on Softer Yields – Buy 4,168–4,175, Sell 4,196–4,206
How Friday's plans finished: The 8:15 AM ET long ran its course: TP1 4,185 at 9:50 AM ET, and the runner tagged TP2 4,198 at 10:25 AM ET (high 4,198.20 – by a hair). The 10:07 AM ET plan was a different story. Gold never reached the 4,200–4,210 short (missed by $1.80), then got sold into the weekend, slicing through the 4,168–4,176 buy zone at 11:25 AM ET down to 4,155.80 at 2:50 PM ET. No 45m or 1H candle closed green inside the zone, so by the rules I stayed out – and skipped a roughly $16 drawdown. The real signal came at tonight's open: the 6–7 PM ET hourly candle closed green at 4,173.50 inside the zone. That long is up about $9. Lesson: gold has stalled just under 4,200 three times (4,198.20, 4,199, 4,197). Set targets a few dollars in front of the round number, not on it.
The Sunday open: why gold is bid: The weekend added more war risk – mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran warning of a 'new operational plan,' Ukraine hitting a St. Petersburg oil terminal – yet the open was calm. Brent is actually down 1.4%, and stock futures are bouncing as dip buyers step back into AI names. What's lifting gold is yields: the 10-year is back to 5.065% while the dollar is flat (DXY 101.85). The Fed is in its blackout until Oct 29 with 83.9% odds of an October hold, so nobody is on the wire to talk yields back up this week. Gold's $20 pop isn't panic – it's a cheaper cost of carry.
How I'm trading the Asia session: I'm holding the long that triggered at the 7:00 PM ET hourly close, but I've trimmed TP1 to 4,195 – hit it, bank 60% and move the stop to breakeven. I'm not chasing 4,182–4,184. If you're flat, wait for a dip into 4,168–4,175 and a green 45m/1H close. 4,196–4,206 has capped gold for two weeks: a red 45m/1H close up there is a small short; a 1H close above 4,212 kills the short idea and I'd buy the 4,200 retest instead. China Q3 GDP hits at 10:00 PM ET – no new entries until the first 45m/1H candle after the release has closed.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 7:45 PM ET, Oct 18
Arrows: vs. prior close
The weekend added war risk – mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran warning of a 'new operational plan,' Ukraine hitting a St. Petersburg oil terminal – yet the open is calm: Brent is down 1.4% at $108.40 and stock futures are bouncing (Nasdaq +0.8%) as dip buyers return to AI names. What's really carrying gold is yields: the 10-year is back to 5.065%, 10-year real yields ended the week at 2.74%, and the Fed is in blackout until Oct 29 with 83.9% odds of an October hold – while the dollar goes nowhere (DXY 101.85). That's why gold opened the week up $20, from 4,164.60 to 4,184.60: a cheaper cost of carry, not panic. My view: the Asia session leans bullish, but 4,196–4,206 has capped gold four times in two weeks (Oct 9, 12, 13 and 16). The levels that matter are 4,212 (a 1H close above turns the ceiling into a floor) and 4,155 (lose it and I'm wrong). The job: don't chase 4,184 – buy a dip into 4,168–4,175, and scalp a red close at the ceiling.
Sources: CNBC – Stock futures · CNBC – Iran/Rezaei · CNBC – Oil · Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- CNBC – Stock futures rebound as investors buy the dip in the AI trade
- CNBC – Iran says it has a 'new operational plan' if the U.S. resumes attacks
- CNBC – Brent hovers near $109 as Ukraine resumes energy strikes, tankers attacked
- CBS News – Iran says Hormuz can reopen if U.S. meets seven-day ceasefire terms
- Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor (CME fed funds futures)
- U.S. Treasury – Daily yield curve and real yields
- Kitco – Wall Street undecided on gold's near-term trajectory
- Investing.com (Reuters) – China's Q3 GDP growth set to pick up as exports power ahead
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data Monday)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: buy 4,168–4,175 (stop 4,153 · TP1 4,195 → TP2 4,205) · sell 4,196–4,206 (stop 4,218 · TP1 4,186 → TP2 4,174). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~50%): a dip into 4,168–4,175 during Asia or around China's GDP – buy a green 45m/1H close, targets 4,195 → 4,205.
- Alternative (~30%): a straight run into 4,196–4,206 – don't chase; a red 45m/1H close is a small short; a 1H close above 4,212 kills the short and I buy the 4,200–4,205 retest toward 4,221 → 4,243.
- Bear case (~20%): a 1H close under 4,155 – step aside; 4,142, then 4,120.
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data today. China Q3 GDP at 10:00 PM ET (est. 4.4%); NAHB at 10:00 AM ET (minor). Hormuz/Iran headlines can whip gold $10–$15 at any time.
- More detail: 45m MA34 4,171 · 1H MA34 4,168 · 15m BB90 mid 4,173 · 38.2/50/61.8% Fib of 4,155.80→4,184.60 = 4,173.60/4,170.20/4,166.80 · Oct 16 pivots P 4,170, R1 4,193, R2 4,221, S1 4,142. Upper BB90 on the 45m/3H/4H: 4,206/4,208/4,208. RSI(14) 62 on the 5m, 63 on the 15m – not overbought.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.