H79 Gold Plan – London Session, Oct 19: Boxed In at 4,166–4,187 Under the $4,200 Lid – Buy 4,166–4,172, Sell 4,198–4,208
How the Asia plan played out: The 4,196–4,206 short never got a look – gold topped at 4,187.10 at 8:00 PM ET, $8.90 short of the zone. The 4,168–4,175 buy zone did trade: gold dipped to 4,166.00 at 9:25 PM ET. The 9:30–10:15 PM ET 45m bar closed green at 4,181.20, but it straddled China's GDP release and closed $6 above the zone, so I didn't chase. I took the 10–11 PM ET hourly instead – a green close at 4,175.80 with the low at 4,169.20, inside the zone. Gold then ran to 4,185.30 at 1:45 AM ET – up $9.50 at best, 9.5 of the 19.2 points to the 4,195 target, $9.70 short – and drifted back to 4,175.40 by 2:45 AM ET. Basically flat. Friday's 4,173.50 long peaked at +$13.60. Lesson: Asia gave a $21 range with no data on the tape, and I set a target $20 away. In London I'm keeping targets inside the range gold is actually trading.
Why gold isn't moving on softer yields: There's support: the 10-year is down 3 bps to 5.067%, and Brent is off 2.3% at $107.30 after President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy, which takes a little heat out of the inflation story. But there are brakes too: the euro is under pressure from the riots in France, so the dollar isn't giving ground (DXY 101.83); Nasdaq futures are up 1.3%, so nobody needs a haven; and fed funds futures still price roughly 88–92% odds of a December hike. China's Q3 GDP beat at 4.5% and gold barely blinked. The forces cancel out, and gold sits in a 4,166–4,187 box.
How I'm trading the London session: I'm holding both longs (4,173.50 and 4,175.80) with the stop still at 4,153, but I've cut TP1 to 4,186 – just under the Asia high. Tag it, bank 60%, stop to breakeven. Fresh longs only on a dip into 4,166–4,172 (daily pivot 4,170, the overnight low 4,166) with a green 45m/1H close. Shorts only at the 4,198–4,208 lid – Friday's 4,198.20 high plus the upper BB90 on the 1H/3H/4H at 4,208 – on a red 45m/1H close. The first London hour (3:00–4:00 AM ET) loves a fake break, so I wait for the close instead of leaving resting orders. No high-impact U.S. data this week and the Fed is in blackout until Oct 29; today it's just Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET and ECB speakers Lane and Elderson.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 2:45 AM ET, Oct 19
Arrows: vs. prior close
Gold has two things going for it this morning: the 10-year is down 3 bps to 5.067%, and Brent is off 2.3% at $107.30 after President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy – a little less oil-driven inflation fear. But the brakes are just as real: riots in France are weighing on the euro, so the dollar is holding firm (DXY 101.83); Nasdaq futures are up 1.3%, so there's no haven bid; and fed funds futures still price roughly 88–92% odds of a December hike. China's Q3 GDP beat at 4.5% and gold barely reacted. Net result: a dead-flat Asia session inside a 4,166–4,187 box. My view: a mild bullish lean while yields are slipping, but with no high-impact U.S. data this week there's no catalyst to crack the 4,198–4,208 lid. The levels that matter are 4,212 (a 1H close above turns the lid into a floor) and 4,162 (the weekly open – lose it and I'm wrong). The job: buy dips into 4,166–4,172, bank early in front of 4,187, and sell a red close at the lid.
Sources: CNBC – Oil · CNBC – Dollar/euro · CNBC – China GDP · Reuters – Gold/FedWatch · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- CNBC – Oil prices slide as sanctions relief on Russian crude raises hopes of increased supply
- CNBC Daily Open – A thousand drones and a strained U.S.-Ukraine alliance
- CNBC – Dollar firmer, euro weakens as French protests turn violent
- CNBC – China's third-quarter growth quickens to 4.5%, beating estimates
- Reuters (via ET BFSI) – Gold edges higher as investors assess Fed rate-hike odds
- Bloomberg (via The Business Times) – Gold edges higher as traders ease rate-hike bets
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data this week)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: buy 4,166–4,172 (stop 4,153 · TP1 4,186 → TP2 4,194) · sell 4,198–4,208 (stop 4,218 · TP1 4,185 → TP2 4,172). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~45%): London sweeps the bottom of the box first – buy a green 45m/1H close in 4,166–4,172, targets 4,186 → 4,194.
- Alternative (~35%): a push through 4,187 into the 4,198–4,208 lid – don't chase; a red 45m/1H close is a short, targets 4,185 → 4,172. A 1H close above 4,212 kills the short and I buy the 4,200 retest toward 4,217–4,221.
- Bear case (~20%): a 1H close under 4,162 (the weekly open) – step aside; 4,155, then 4,142.
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data this week and the Fed is in blackout until Oct 29. Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET; ECB's Lane and Elderson speak. Hormuz or Russia–Ukraine headlines can whip gold $10–$15 at any time.
- More detail: 15m MA34/MA89 4,177/4,175 · 30m 4,173/4,168 · 45m 4,175/4,152 · 1H 4,173/4,154. Upper BB90 on the 45m/1H/2H/3H/4H: 4,212/4,208/4,215/4,208/4,209 · 1H BB90 mid 4,154. Oct 16 pivots: P 4,170 · R1 4,193 · R2 4,221 · S1 4,142. Fib of 4,162.90→4,187.10: 50% 4,175 · 61.8% 4,172 · 78.6% 4,168. The 80–85%-to-1H-mid rule would put the short's TP1 near 4,162 – 2.7x the stop – so I keep it at 4,185 (about 1.2x). RSI(14) 50 on the 5m, 52 on the 15m – neutral.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
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