Gold Plan, Late London / Pre-NY Open (Oct 19): A French-Driven Dollar Bid Erases the Asia Rally – Sell the Bounce, Buy 4,150

Overnight: Friday's New York session whipsawed both ways: gold dropped to 4,154.70 at 9:20 AM ET, was at 4,198.20 an hour later (10:25 AM ET) – $1.80 shy of $4,200 – and then got sold back to close the week at 4,164.50 (4:55 PM ET). That's a 0.7% weekly loss, the third down week in a month. The weekend brought three big stories: President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy; Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones into Russia, setting a St. Petersburg oil terminal and depot on fire; and France went through one of its most violent days of unrest in years – hundreds of thousands marched over the cost of living and more than 2,000 people were arrested (CNBC). In the Gulf, tankers are still being hit.

Asian session: Gold opened the week at 4,164.60 at 6:00 PM ET Sunday and printed the overnight low, 4,162.90, in the very first bar. The market read Chair Warsh's refusal to pre-commit on Friday as a hold next week – October hike odds fell to about 15% – and gold ran to its Asia high of 4,187.10 at 8:00 PM ET. From there it chopped: a dip to 4,166.00 at 9:25 PM ET, a shrug at China's Q3 GDP beat (4.5%) at 10:00 PM ET, then a drift up to 4,185.30 at 1:45 AM ET. Asia closed at 4,184.80 (2:55 AM ET): high 4,187.10, low 4,162.90, a $24 range.

London morning: London opened at 4,183.70 (3:00 AM ET) and gold made the day's high of 4,188.90 at 3:30 AM ET – right as Brent hit its low of the day at $106.82. Then France took over the tape: the French 10-year yield jumped more than 10 bps, the CAC 40 fell 1.3%, EUR/USD dropped to 1.1185 (3:55 AM ET) and the DXY spiked to 102.08 (4:05 AM ET). Gold lost $16 in 30 minutes, to 4,172.60 by 4:00 AM ET. The second leg came from U.S. yields and oil: the 10-year bounced from 5.060% to 5.090% (5:05 AM ET) and Brent recovered from $106.80 to $108.80, and gold stair-stepped down to 4,162.77 at 6:50 AM ET – a marginal break of the Asia low. At 6:55 AM ET it's 4,168.10 (CNBC; gold-api.com 4,171.70). London has wiped out the entire Asia rally. My 2:45 AM ET plan: the two longs I was carrying (4,173.50 and 4,175.80) hit the revised 4,186 TP1 at 3:00 AM ET – 60% banked for +$12.50 and +$10.20 – and the rest, with stops at breakeven, got taken out flat at 3:55–4:00 AM ET. That part worked: I'd pulled TP1 in under the Asia high, so when gold only cleared it by $1.80 and rolled over, the money was already booked. The 4,198–4,208 short never traded – the high was 4,188.90, $9.10 short. What didn't work: the 4,166–4,172 floor of the box didn't hold. Price entered the zone at 4:45 AM ET and pushed through to 4,162.77, but no 45m or 1H bar closed green – the 4:15, 5:00 and 5:45 AM ET 45-minute bars were all red – so no new long. A mid-zone fill at 4,169 would be down as much as $6.20; the 4,153 stop hasn't been touched. I underestimated how hard the dollar would bid in European hours; the wait-for-the-close rule kept me out.

Why gold fell: First, the dollar – and this time the story is in Paris, not Washington. The weekend riots turned into a 2027 budget scare: the French 10-year is near its highest since 2002 and the OAT-Bund spread is close to euro-crisis levels (CNBC). A weak euro pushed the DXY to 102.08, and gold was the first thing sold. Second, U.S. yields: still lower than Friday (10-year 5.081%, −1.7 bps; 2-year 4.723%) thanks to cheaper oil and talk of less long-end Treasury issuance (MarketWatch), but off this morning's 5.050% low – so the cushion gold had in Asia got thinner. Third, oil and war risk: Brent touched $106.80 and is back to $108.50 (−1.3%). The Russia waiver promises more supply, but tankers are still getting hit and Hormuz flows are 41% below prewar levels (Kpler, via WSJ). If oil stops falling, Asia's 'cheaper oil, cooler inflation, softer Fed' story runs out of gas. Fourth, the Fed: it's in blackout ahead of the Oct. 27–28 meeting; FedWatch shows just 15% odds of an October hike but 89% for December (CNBC), and real yields near 2.74% on 10-year TIPS remain gold's biggest headwind. Fifth, risk appetite: Nasdaq futures are up 1.2% as dip buyers come back to AI names after the chip index lost 11.4% last week (Reuters), and the VIX is down to 18.5 – nobody's rushing for a haven. What's still holding a floor: SPDR Gold Trust added 5.1 tonnes on Friday (Economies.com), and neither Russia–Ukraine nor the Gulf is cooling down.

What's on the tape today: I double-checked the ForexFactory calendar: no high-impact U.S. data all week. Today it's Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET (high impact for CAD, est. +0.2% m/m) – it touches gold only through the dollar – and NAHB housing at 10:00 AM ET (low impact, est. 31). The cash open at 9:30 AM ET comes with Nasdaq futures up 1.2%, and earnings season is in full swing: SpaceX on Tuesday, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday. Later this week: jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, flash PMIs Friday at 9:45 AM ET and the final UMich inflation expectations at 10:00 AM ET, and Moody's reviews France's rating on Friday (Euronews). With no red-folder data, gold trades EUR/USD (France), the 10-year around 5.08% and oil. Reference point: Friday's close at 4,164.50 – gold is only $3.60 above it.

45-minute technicals: At 4,168.10, gold is below the 45m MA34 (4,173.70) but still above the MA89 (4,156.50) and the BB90 mid (4,155.70); upper band 4,210.10, lower band 4,101.30. The 45m MACD has crossed down (0.03/1.50), histogram −1.5, RSI(14) 47. The 1H looks the same: below its MA34 at 4,173.50, above the BB90 mid at 4,153.50 and MA89 at 4,153.20, with a bearish MACD cross. The 2H–4H frames are still in the upper half of BB90 (mids 4,154–4,158); the 4H MACD is positive but the histogram has shrunk from +3.3 to +1.7. H79 filter: the 5m, 15m and 30m are all in the lower half of BB90; the 5m MA34 has crossed under the MA89, price is below both lines on the 15m and 30m, 15m RSI 41 – sellers own the short-term, the bigger frames are flat. Pullbacks like this usually go and tag the 45m/1H BB90 mid at 4,153–4,156 before the market picks a direction. Daily pivots (Oct 16 session: high 4,198.20 · low 4,147.80 · close 4,164.50): P 4,170 · R1 4,193 · S1 4,142 · S2 4,120 – price is under P. Key highs/lows: Friday's 4,198.20, today's 4,188.90, the overnight low 4,162.90, the Oct 16 low 4,147.80, and last week's 4,074.10 low. My take: I'm not buying 4,163 right after a string of red bars broke the floor of the box. I want a bounce into the 4,176–4,183 MA34 cluster to sell, or a green close at the 4,150–4,156 BB90 mid to buy. No signal, no trade – a missed trade beats a bad one.