H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 19: Below the Weekly Open, Leaning Lower – Sell 4,175–4,182, Buy 4,150–4,156
How the late-London plan played out: Right call, no trade. Gold bounced to 4,176.50 at 7:15 AM ET – half a dollar into my 4,176–4,183 sell zone – and rolled over. But the confirming 45m and 1H bars didn't close red until 8:00 AM ET, at 4,162.90: $13 below the zone and only $4.90 from TP1 at 4,158, with the stop up at 4,194. That's chasing, so I passed. Gold then printed 4,159.05 – a dollar short of the target. The 4,150–4,156 buy zone never traded ($3 short). Being right on direction and missing the fill happens; I'd rather miss a move than take a bad entry.
Why gold leans lower into New York: On paper, gold should be fine: the 10-year is still a touch lower on the day at 5.094% and Brent is down 1.5% at $108.20. But the dollar is driving today. The weekend riots in France turned into a budget scare – French 10-year yields up nearly 8 bps, EUR/USD back near $1.12 – so the DXY is holding 101.87. And Treasury yields have stopped falling, bouncing from 5.067% overnight to 5.09%. Add a risk-on tape – Nasdaq futures +1.25%, VIX down 7% to 18.6 – and there's no haven bid. Fed funds futures still price roughly 92% odds of a December hike. Gold is $30 off the 4,188.90 London high and has closed below the 4,164.60 weekly open.
How I'm trading the New York session: No high-impact U.S. data today – just Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET and the NAHB housing index at 10:00 AM ET. With nothing on the tape to blame, gold trades the dollar, the euro and yields. Sellers own the short-term trend: the 5m, 15m and 30m are all below MA34 and MA89, and the 45m/1H MACD has crossed down. My first choice is to sell a bounce into 4,175–4,182 – where the 15m/45m/1H MA34 meet the 4,176.50 bounce high and the 50–61.8% retrace of 4,188.90→4,159.05 – on a red 45m/1H close. The bigger picture isn't broken, though: the 45m–4H are still in the upper half of BB90, and the 1H/3H BB90 mid sits at 4,153–4,154. That's the floor where I'll buy a green close. The 9:30 AM ET cash open loves an $8–$10 fake move, so I wait for the close and leave no resting orders. A 1H close above 4,192 means I'm wrong on the short side.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 19
Arrows: vs. prior close
Gold had a reason to rally overnight – softer Treasury yields and cheaper oil. London took it away. The weekend riots in France turned into a budget scare: French 10-year yields are up nearly 8 bps, EUR/USD is back near $1.12, and the dollar is the winner (DXY 101.87). The 10-year Treasury has also stopped falling, bouncing from 5.067% to 5.094%. Stock futures are ripping (Nasdaq +1.25%, VIX down to 18.6), so nobody needs a haven, and fed funds futures still price about 92% odds of a December hike. Net result: gold gave back $30, from 4,188.90 to 4,159.05, and closed under the weekly open. My view: New York leans lower toward the 1H/3H BB90 mid at 4,150–4,156 – but that's also where I want to buy, because the bigger frames aren't broken. There's no high-impact U.S. data today, so don't wait for a number to bail gold out. The levels that matter: 4,192 – a 1H close above it and I'm wrong, buyers are back; 4,146 – a 1H close below it opens 4,142, then 4,120. The job: don't sell the hole at 4,160, sell a bounce into 4,175–4,182, and buy 4,150–4,156 on a green close.
Sources: Reuters – France/euro/Treasuries · CNBC – Euro/France · MarketWatch – French yields · ET Now – Fed odds · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- Reuters (via Euronext) – France concerns weigh on Europe, while Wall Street looks to AI earnings
- CNBC – Euro drops amid high energy prices and street riots in France
- MarketWatch – French government-bond yields rise on protests; Treasury yields fall
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold edges up as oil retreat lends support; Fed decision in focus
- ET Now – Gold price today, Oct 19: December hike odds near 92%
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data today)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,175–4,182 (stop 4,192 · TP1 4,160 → TP2 4,154) · buy 4,150–4,156 (stop 4,140 · TP1 4,168 → TP2 4,177). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~45%): the cash open bounces gold into 4,175–4,182 and it fails – sell a red 45m/1H close, targets 4,160 → 4,154.
- Alternative (~35%): gold flushes straight to 4,150–4,156 first – don't sell the hole; buy a green 45m/1H close, targets 4,168 → 4,177.
- Bear case (~20%): a 1H close under 4,146 – step aside; next is the 4,142 S1, then 4,120. Flip side: a 1H close above 4,192 kills the short and puts 4,198–4,208 back in play.
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data today (Canadian CPI 8:30 AM ET, NAHB 10:00 AM ET – both minor). Headlines out of France, Hormuz or Russia–Ukraine can whip gold $10–$15 at any time.
- More detail: MA34/MA89 – 5m 4,168/4,174 · 15m 4,175/4,173 · 30m 4,173/4,171 · 45m 4,173/4,159 · 1H 4,174/4,153. BB90 mid on the 45m/1H/2H/3H/4H: 4,158/4,153/4,159/4,154/4,158 · 1H upper BB90 4,206. Oct 16 pivots: P 4,170 · R1 4,193 · S1 4,142 · S2 4,120. Retrace of 4,188.90→4,159.05: 38.2% 4,170 · 50% 4,174 · 61.8% 4,177.50 · 78.6% 4,182.50. RSI(14) 45 on the 5m, 41 on the 15m, 46 on the 1H – not oversold.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.