H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 19 (NY Morning Update): Below 4,150 at the Open – Sell 4,153–4,159, Buy 4,118–4,124
How the 8:15 AM ET plan played out: Right direction, no trade – for the second time today. The 4,175–4,182 sell zone never traded: the best gold could do after 8:15 AM ET was 4,166.70 at 8:20, $8.30 short. Then it fell straight through my 4,154 TP2 without me. The 4,150–4,156 buy zone did trade at 9:40 AM ET, but no 45m or 1H bar closed green – the 9:00 AM ET hourly closed red at 4,154.40 – so I never bought. Gold printed 4,143.45 at 10:15 AM ET. A blind limit at 4,153 would be $8–$9 under water right now, $4–$5 from the 4,140 stop. I made nothing on a $45 down day, and I'm fine with that: missing a move costs nothing, a bad entry does.
Why gold lost 4,150: Nothing hit gold – and that's the problem. Bulls needed a catalyst, and the cash open delivered the opposite mood: money rotated back into AI names (Nasdaq +1.4%, VIX down 11% to 17.7), the 10-year held above 5.10% (it was 5.067% overnight), and the DXY sat at 101.9. Nobody needs a haven. When gold lost the 4,159 London low at 9:40 AM ET, the long stops went – $15 in ten minutes. Then the 10:00 AM ET NAHB index came in at 29 against a 31 forecast, the lowest since 2012. Normally weak data helps gold through lower yields. Not today: the 10-year stayed at 5.108%. This market is trading inflation and the ~89% odds of a December hike, not housing. When good news for gold can't lift gold, I respect the sellers.
How I'm trading the rest of the New York session: I lean lower, but I'm not selling 4,145–4,150. The 15m RSI(14) hit 27 at the low and price pierced the 30m lower BB90 – that's where late shorts get trapped. I want a bounce into 4,153–4,159, where old support turns into resistance: the 1H/3H BB90 mid at 4,153–4,154, the 4,159 London low and the 45m MA89 at 4,160. A red 45m or 1H close there and I'm short, stop 4,168, targets 4,141 then 4,125. Below, 4,118–4,124 is where the 4,120 S2 meets the 78.6% retrace of 4,099.90→4,198.20 (4,121) – that's where I buy a green close. The London close at 11:30 AM ET often reverses the morning move, so no resting orders – closes only. A 1H close above 4,168 means I'm wrong on the short, and I'll step aside rather than argue with the tape.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 10:07 AM ET, Oct 19
Arrows: vs. prior close
At 8:15 AM ET I said there was no data on the calendar to bail gold out – the market confirmed it the hard way. Wall Street opened risk-on: money rotated back into AI names, the Nasdaq is up 1.4% and the VIX is down to 17.7. The 10-year didn't extend its overnight drop; it's holding 5.10–5.11%, and the dollar sits at 101.9 on a soft euro. Gold had no reason to hold, so once it lost the 4,159 London low, the long stops went and it dropped to 4,143.45. Even a 29 NAHB print (31 expected, lowest since 2012) couldn't pull yields lower – this market is pricing inflation and roughly 89% odds of a December hike. My view: the rest of the New York session leans lower, but gold is stretched – I'm not selling the hole, I'm waiting for a bounce into 4,153–4,159. The two levels that matter: 4,168 – a 1H close above it and the short is wrong; 4,110 – a 1H close below it opens 4,100. The job: sell 4,153–4,159 on a red close, buy 4,118–4,124 on a green close, and sit on my hands in between.
Sources: CNBC – Stock market live · Reuters – NAHB · Kitco – Fed odds · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- CNBC – Nasdaq gains as investors buy the dip in the AI trade (live, Oct 19)
- Reuters (via MarketScreener) – U.S. homebuilder sentiment tumbles to near 14-1/2-year low in October
- NAHB – Builder Sentiment Falls on Rising Rates
- Kitco – Gold slips in early U.S. trade; December hike odds near 89%
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data today)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,153–4,159 (stop 4,168 · TP1 4,141 → TP2 4,125) · buy 4,118–4,124 (stop 4,106 · TP1 4,137 → TP2 4,152). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~50%): an oversold bounce into 4,153–4,159 fails – sell a red 45m/1H close, targets 4,141 → 4,125.
- Alternative (~30%): no bounce, gold slides through 4,141 into 4,118–4,124 – don't chase it; buy a green 45m/1H close, targets 4,137 → 4,152.
- Bear case for the plan (~20%): a 1H close above 4,168 – the short is wrong, step aside, gold heads back to the 4,170–4,175 pivot area. Or a 1H close under 4,110 – no longs, next stop 4,100 (Oct 15 low).
- Risk: no more high-impact U.S. data today. The 11:30 AM ET London close and the 1:30 PM ET Comex settle often reverse the morning move, and Hormuz/Iran headlines can whip gold $10–$15 at any time.
- More detail: MA34/MA89 – 5m 4,161/4,169 · 15m 4,170/4,171 · 30m 4,172/4,171 · 45m 4,172/4,160 · 1H 4,172/4,153. BB90 mid on the 45m/1H/2H/3H/4H: 4,159/4,153/4,159/4,154/4,158 · lower BB90 on the 1H/3H/4H: 4,100/4,101/4,107. Oct 16 pivots: P 4,170 · R1 4,193 · S1 4,142 · S2 4,120. Retrace of 4,188.90→4,143.45: 23.6% 4,154 · 38.2% 4,161 · 50% 4,166. Retrace of 4,099.90→4,198.20: 50% 4,149 (broken) · 61.8% 4,137.50 · 78.6% 4,121. RSI(14) at the 10:10 AM ET low: 31 on the 5m, 27 on the 15m, 34 on the 1H – oversold short term; back to 40/34/36 by 10:20.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.