H79 Gold Plan – Asia Session (Tuesday Evening ET), Oct 20: Iran Peace Pop Fades, Gold Back at 4,114 – Sell 4,124–4,130, Buy 4,100–4,106
Tuesday's scorecard: paid in Asia and London, flat in New York: The Asia short at 4,143 hit both targets (+$9 and +$18), and the 4,120 long came off at 4,133 (+$13). The 10:07 AM ET plan: gold tagged 4,153.50 at the very edge of the sell zone and reversed, but never printed a red 45m or 1H close in the zone – it ran through both targets with no position on. The 4,130–4,136 buy zone traded, the bars closed red, so no long, and gold then broke to 4,117.60 – waiting for the close kept money in the account. The lesson: the pop to 4,153 was an unconfirmed Iran peace report, not the housing data, and headline spikes like that fade fast.
Asia Session Plan:
🔴 SELL 4,124–4,130 | Stop 4,138 | Targets 4,115 → 4,106
🟢 BUY 4,100–4,106 | Stop 4,091 | Targets 4,118 → 4,127
Confirm: short on a red 45m/1H close in the zone; long on a green 1H close, or the 45m BB90 setup (a red close outside the lower band, then a green close back inside). No resting orders.
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,138 cancels the short; below 4,091 cancels the long.
In between, 4,106–4,124, I'm flat – no selling the hole at 4,114.
Note: 9:00–11:00 PM ET Tokyo and Shanghai open; 3:00 AM ET London open; 10:30 AM ET EIA crude stocks; no high-impact U.S. data Wednesday.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 7:45 PM ET, Oct 20
Arrows: vs. prior close
Tuesday showed exactly what gold is chained to right now – oil and rates. An unconfirmed Iran peace report knocked crude, the dollar and yields lower and gold jumped $22 to 4,153.50; then a diplomat said a deal wasn't close and the whole move unwound. Brent still settled at $108.79, the 10-year at 5.12%, the 2-year actually rose to 4.79%, and the market still prices roughly 87% odds of a hike by December. As long as crude holds above $100 and the Fed stays in its blackout ahead of the Oct. 27-28 meeting, gold rallies are for selling, not for bottom-picking. My view: short-term bearish, 4,138 is where the short is wrong, and 4,100–4,106 is the only place worth buying – on a confirming close.
Sources: Bloomberg – Gold and Iran talks · CNBC – Oil · CNBC – Treasury yields · Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- The New Arab – Mediators submit new peace proposal to Iran, US
- Bloomberg (via NDTV Profit) – Gold wavers as traders weigh US-Iran talks, Fed rate path
- Reuters (via CNBC) – Gold edges lower as investors weigh Fed rate signals
- CNBC – Oil prices fall as traders hope for diplomatic progress in Middle East
- CNBC – 10-year Treasury yield moves lower after weak housing data
- Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor (CME fed funds futures), Oct 20, 7:25 PM ET
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data Wednesday)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,124–4,130 (stop 4,138 · TP1 4,115 → TP2 4,106) · buy 4,100–4,106 (stop 4,091 · TP1 4,118 → TP2 4,127). Only on a confirming close.
- Base case (~50%): the Asia session bounces into 4,124–4,130 and fails – sell a red 45m/1H close.
- Alternative (~30%): no bounce, gold slides straight into 4,100–4,106 – don't chase it; buy a green 1H close or the 45m BB90 setup.
- Bear case for the plan (~20%): a 1H close above 4,138 – the short is wrong, step aside, next up 4,150–4,159. Or a 1H close under 4,091 – no longs, next stop 4,074 (Oct. 14 low).
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data Wednesday; EIA crude stocks at 10:30 AM ET (API showed a 4.93 million-barrel draw). Iran–Qatar–Pakistan, Houthi–Saudi and Hormuz headlines can whip gold $15–$20, just like Tuesday.
- More detail: MA34/MA89 – 5m 4,121/4,123 · 15m 4,124/4,127 · 30m 4,124/4,141 · 45m 4,127/4,152 · 1H 4,131/4,153. Lower BB90: 5m 4,115 · 15m 4,109 · 45m 4,105 · 1H 4,110 · 2H 4,103 · 3H 4,097 · 4H 4,102. Oct. 20 pivots (high 4,153.50 · low 4,111.20 · close 4,124.40): P 4,129.70 · R1 4,148 · S1 4,105.90 · S2 4,087. RSI(14): 30 on the 5m · 36 on the 15m · 40 on the 1H. The 45m and 1H MACD just ticked above signal (histogram near zero) – selling is slowing, not reversing; 2H–4H still below signal.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.