H79 Gold Plan – London Session, Oct 20: A Softer Dollar Can't Lift Gold Past 4,146 – Sell 4,140–4,146, Buy 4,116–4,122
Asia recap: the short paid in full, the long was a beat late: The 4,140–4,146 short played out as drawn: filled around 4,143, TP1 at 4,134 (+$9), then TP2 at 4,125 (+$18). Gold did tag the buy zone, but the 1H closed red, so we stayed flat and missed the $30 bounce. The tell was there: a 45m bar closed red outside the 90 band, and the very next 45m bar flipped green and closed back inside – that was a buyable setup with room to target. Waiting on the 1H close is safer, but it was one beat too late.
Why a softer dollar didn't help: On paper, this morning favored gold: the dollar index is down 0.2% at 101.77, the 10-year eased to 5.12% from 5.14%, Asian equities are red (Kospi −2.8%, Euro Stoxx 50 futures −1%), and the Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi energy, airport and military targets. Gold did pop to 4,145 around 11:47 PM ET – Reuters called it 'inching up on a softer dollar' – then got sold back to 4,118 inside two hours. My read: the market still expects a December hike (89% on CME FedWatch) even with 82% betting on a hold Oct. 28, and BOJ Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is 'quite close' to 2%, leaving the door open to more Japanese hikes – global yields don't have room to fall. When good news can't lift the price, I trust the price.
How I'm trading the London session: Shorts are still my priority. At 1:15 AM ET gold left a gap at 4,137.50–4,142.50, right under the 4,146.50 Asia high, the 15m MA89 (4,146) and the 38.2% retrace of 4,188.90→4,115.90 (4,144). The 3:00 AM ET London open loves to run the Asia high or low; if it squeezes up to fill that gap and a 45m or 1H bar closes red, I'm short with a 4,153 stop, scaling out at 4,132, then 4,121. The BB90 setup flashed a second long at 2:45 AM ET (the 1:15 AM bar closed 4,122.10 outside the band, the 2:00 AM bar closed green at 4,131.40). I'm passing: a sensible stop sits under the 4,118 low, so that's $14 of risk for $6–$9 to the gap. I'd rather let that bounce carry price into my sell zone. If Europe runs the double bottom instead, 4,116–4,122 is the buy, stop 4,107 under the 2H lower BB90. A 1H close above 4,153 means I'm wrong on the short – I step aside, I don't argue.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 2:45 AM ET, Oct 20
Arrows: vs. prior close
This morning the dollar is off 0.2%, the 10-year has backed off to 5.12% from 5.14%, Asian stocks are red and the Houthis hit Saudi targets again – four things that usually lift gold. Gold managed 4,146.50 and then got sold back to 4,118 ahead of the European open. That tells me the driver isn't the dollar or war headlines, it's rate expectations: the market prices an 89% chance of a December Fed hike, and the BOJ is leaving the door open to more tightening, so global yields have no room to fall far and every gold bounce runs into sellers. My view: London still leans lower. The two levels that matter: 4,153 – a 1H close above it and the short is wrong; 4,116–4,118 – the Asia double bottom, and losing it opens the path to 4,100. The job: wait for a bounce into 4,140–4,146 to sell, buy the double bottom only on a confirming close, and sit on my hands in between.
Sources: CNBC – Gold (Reuters) · CNBC – Oil (Reuters) · Bloomberg – Asia markets · CNBC – XAU=
Sources
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold inches up on softer dollar as investors assess Fed rate outlook
- CNBC (Reuters) – Oil eases as markets assess potential waiver on Russian energy, Middle East supply risks
- Bloomberg (via swissinfo) – Asian stocks shrug off US chip rally, oil steadies
- AP – Asian shares mostly decline after AI stocks lead a rebound on Wall Street
- Economy Middle East – Gold eases to $4,132.15 despite weaker dollar
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data Tuesday)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
- CNBC – U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,140–4,146 (stop 4,153 · TP1 4,132 → TP2 4,121) · buy 4,116–4,122 (stop 4,107 · TP1 4,135 → TP2 4,143).
- Base case (~50%): the 3:00 AM ET London open squeezes up to fill the 4,137.50–4,142.50 gap or runs the 4,146.50 Asia high, then fails – sell a red 45m/1H close.
- Alternative (~30%): Europe runs the 4,116–4,118 double bottom first – don't chase it; buy a green 1H close or the 45m BB90 setup.
- Bear case for the plan (~20%): a 1H close above 4,153 – the short is wrong, step aside, gold heads to 4,160 (45m/2H BB90 mid). A 1H close under 4,107 – no longs, next stops 4,100 (Oct 15 low) and 4,097 (1H lower BB90).
- Risk: no high-impact U.S. data Tuesday. German/euro-zone ZEW at 5:00 AM ET, housing starts and building permits at 8:30 AM ET, pending home sales at 10:00 AM ET (all minor). Houthi–Saudi and Hormuz headlines can whip gold $10–$15. UK CPI hits at 2:00 AM ET Wednesday.
- More detail: MA34/MA89 – 5m 4,135/4,134 · 15m 4,135/4,146 · 30m 4,139/4,160 · 45m 4,148/4,161 · 1H 4,155/4,151 · 2H 4,161/4,161. Lower BB90: 5m 4,119 · 15m 4,117 · 30m 4,123 · 45m 4,126 · 1H 4,097 · 2H 4,109 · 3H 4,100 · 4H 4,106; BB90 mid 15m 4,146 · 1H 4,150 · 45m/2H 4,161. Oct 19 pivots (high 4,188.90 · low 4,136.80 · close 4,140.25): P 4,155 · R1 4,174 · S1 4,122 · S2 4,103. Retrace of 4,188.90→4,115.90: 23.6% 4,133 · 38.2% 4,144 · 50% 4,152. RSI(14): 54 on the 5m · 49 on the 15m · 47 on the 30m · 45 on the 45m · 42 on the 1H. The 80–85%-to-the-1H-mid rule would put the long's TP1 near 4,145, twice the stop – I'm keeping 4,135 (about 1.3x the stop).
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
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