🎯 H79 Gold Plan· Ngọc Huy

H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 20: Oil Keeps Gold Pinned Under 4,140 – Sell 4,133–4,140, Buy 4,100–4,106

The 6:47 AM ET gold plan – where price went: Since 6:47 AM ET gold has just chopped between 4,112 and 4,125: the 4,135–4,141 sell zone never came into play and the 4,100–4,106 buy zone wasn't touched, so no new trades. The 4,120 long from the 2:45 AM ET plan is still on – the 8:10 AM ET drop to 4,112.50 stayed clear of the 4,107 stop and price is back around the entry.

Why gold still feels heavy into New York: The dollar is off 0.2% at 101.74 and the 10-year has slipped to 5.09% – on paper, gold should be bouncing. It isn't, because oil won't let it: Brent is at $111.25 (+1.6%) and WTI is above $100 after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and more attacks on ships around Hormuz. Expensive oil means sticky inflation, so the market still prices roughly 92% odds of a December hike even with a hold all but locked in for next week. Stock futures are red (Nasdaq −0.7%) and the haven money still isn't showing up in gold – this is day three of the slide, and price is pinned under 4,140.

Plan for the New York session:
🔴 SELL the bounce 4,133–4,140 | Stop 4,148 | Targets 4,120 → 4,108
🟢 BUY 4,100–4,106 | Stop 4,091 | Targets 4,120 → 4,133
The 4,120 long from the 2:45 AM ET plan keeps its 4,107 stop and comes off at 4,133.
Enter only on a confirmed 45m/1H close – no resting orders.
A 1H close above 4,148 cancels the short; below 4,091 cancels the long.
Note: housing starts at 8:30 AM ET, the cash open at 9:30 AM ET, pending home sales at 10:00 AM ET; no high-impact U.S. data today.

Gold 45-minute chart, New York session Oct 20: Asia high 4,146.50, London low 4,111.20, last 4,123.90; sell zone 4,133–4,140, buy zone 4,100–4,106
Bias: 🔻 Short-term bearish – oil keeps gold under 4,140 despite a softer dollar and lower yields; sell a bounce into 4,133–4,140, buy 4,100–4,106 on a green close
🔴 SELL zone 4,133–4,140 | SL 4,148 | TP1 4,120 → TP2 4,108
🟢 BUY zone 4,100–4,106 | SL 4,091 | TP1 4,120 → TP2 4,133
⚠️ Key risk: No high-impact U.S. data today. The 9:30 AM ET cash open loves an $8–$10 jerk – enter only on a 45m/1H close. The 4,120 long keeps its 4,107 stop, out at 4,133. A 1H close above 4,148 cancels the short; below 4,091 cancels the long.
💲 ✅ Spot XAU/USD prices

🌍 Market Picture

As of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 20

DXY 101.74 −0.23%US10Y 5.088% ↓US2Y 4.742% ↓10Y TIPS 2.735%Brent 111.25 +1.55%S&P 500 fut. 7,716.5 −0.23%Nasdaq fut. 29,518 −0.69%VIX 18.94Dec hike odds ~92%

Arrows: vs. prior close

Into the New York open, the dollar is softer and the 10-year is lower – the two things that usually lift gold – and gold is still stuck around 4,120–4,125. Oil is driving: Brent at $111, WTI above $100, and the market reads that as sticky inflation, so it keeps about 92% odds on a December hike. Until crude cools off, war headlines hurt gold through the rates channel instead of helping it. My view for New York: leaning lower, but I won't sell the lows. The two levels that matter: 4,148 – a 1H close above it and the short is wrong; 4,100 – the Oct. 15 low, and losing it opens 4,074. The job: wait for a cash-open bounce into 4,133–4,140 to sell, buy 4,100–4,106 only on a green close, and sit on my hands in between.

Sources: FXStreet – Gold, oil, FedWatch · CNBC (Reuters) – Gold · CNBC (Reuters) – Oil · CNBC – XAU=

Sources

More details

🧭 Plan & scenarios

  • The plan: sell 4,133–4,140 (stop 4,148 · TP1 4,120 → TP2 4,108) · buy 4,100–4,106 (stop 4,091 · TP1 4,120 → TP2 4,133). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
  • Open position: the 4,120 long from the 2:45 AM ET plan (stop 4,107) – out at 4,133, the bottom of the sell zone.
  • Base case (~50%): the 9:30 AM ET cash open bounces gold through the gap into 4,133–4,140 and it fails – sell a red 45m/1H close.
  • Alternative (~30%): gold breaks the 4,111 low and drops into 4,100–4,106 – don't sell the hole; buy a green 45m/1H close or the 45m BB90 setup.
  • Bear case (~20%): a 1H close under 4,091 – no longs, step aside; next stops 4,074 (Oct 14 low) and 4,070 (S3). Flip side: a 1H close above 4,148 kills the short and opens 4,153 (1H BB90 mid) and 4,158 (45m MA89).
  • Risk: no high-impact U.S. data today; housing starts/permits at 8:30 AM ET, the cash open at 9:30 AM ET, pending home sales at 10:00 AM ET, API crude stocks at 4:30 PM ET. Houthi–Saudi and Hormuz headlines can whip gold $10–$15.
  • More detail: MA34/MA89 – 5m 4,119/4,124 · 15m 4,126/4,135 · 30m 4,131/4,153 · 45m 4,137/4,158 · 1H 4,146/4,153 · 2H 4,158/4,160 · 4H 4,152/4,155. Lower BB90: 15m 4,114 · 30m 4,112 · 45m 4,118 · 1H 4,108 · 2H 4,107 · 3H 4,099 · 4H 4,104; BB90 mid 15m 4,135 · 1H 4,153 · 45m 4,158. Oct 19 pivots (high 4,188.90 · low 4,136.80 · close 4,140.25): P 4,155 · S1 4,122 · S2 4,103 · S3 4,070. RSI(14): 57 on the 5m · 50 on the 15m · 42 on the 45m · 41 on the 1H.

💡 Our take

Trade the plan, not the noise.

Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.

⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.

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