H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 20 (NY Morning Update): Housing Miss Pulls Yields Lower, Gold Clears 4,140 – Sell 4,153–4,159, Buy 4,130–4,136
The 8:15 AM ET gold plan – where price went: The 4,120 long from the 2:45 AM ET plan came off at 4,133 as planned, +$13, when the housing data hit and gold popped. The 4,100–4,106 buy zone never came into play. The 4,133–4,140 sell zone got run over by a string of green bars, with no red 45m or 1H close – so no short, and no stop to eat. Gold kept going to 4,150 after the exit. Chasing it would have broken the rules, so I let it go.
Why gold cleared 4,140: All morning this market only cared about oil and the Fed. Then September pending home sales came in at −7.3% against a −0.7% forecast, on top of housing starts at 1.22 million versus 1.30 million expected, and the story changed: the most rate-sensitive corner of the U.S. economy is cracking. The 10-year dropped to 5.08%, the dollar fell 0.4% to 101.5, Brent slipped to $108 – and gold filled the whole 4,133–4,142 gap in under half an hour. That's a bounce with a real reason behind it, so I'm not going to stand in front of it. But the bigger trend hasn't flipped: the market still prices roughly 93% odds of a hike by December, and there's a wall overhead at 4,153–4,159.
Plan for the rest of the New York session:
🔴 SELL 4,153–4,159 | Stop 4,167 | Targets 4,144 → 4,137
🟢 BUY the pullback 4,130–4,136 | Stop 4,119 | Targets 4,146 → 4,153
Confirm: enter only on a 45m/1H close – red in the sell zone, green in the buy zone; no resting orders.
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,167 cancels the short; below 4,119 cancels the long.
In between, 4,137–4,153, I'm flat.
Note: the 11:00 AM ET hourly close, the 11:30 AM ET London close and the 1:30 PM ET Comex settle; no more U.S. data today.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 10:07 AM ET, Oct 20
Arrows: vs. prior close
Earlier today I said oil was hurting gold through the rates channel. Then the U.S. data gave the bulls a reason: housing starts at 1.22 million (1.30 million expected), then pending home sales down 7.3% against a 0.7% forecast, the weakest since at least 2001. A 7.5% mortgage rate is choking the most rate-sensitive corner of the economy – and the bond market heard it: the 10-year fell to 5.08%, the dollar dropped 0.4% to 101.5 and Brent slipped to $108. Gold did what the textbook says: it ran from 4,121 to 4,150 and filled the whole 4,133–4,142 gap. But one data point doesn't rewrite the story. The Fed is in its blackout ahead of the Oct. 27-28 meeting, the market still prices roughly 93% odds of a hike by December, and crude is still north of $100. My view: the rest of the New York session is a bounce running into resistance, not a reversal. The two levels that matter: 4,167 – a 1H close above it and the short is wrong; 4,119 – a 1H close below it and the data pop has failed. The job: sell 4,153–4,159 on a red close, buy a pullback into 4,130–4,136 on a green close, and sit on my hands in between.
Sources: CNBC – September housing data · CNBC – Stock market live · Kitco – Fed odds · CNBC – XAU= · CNBC – US10Y
Sources
- CNBC – September data shows housing market in a deep freeze
- CNBC – Nasdaq falls as AI trade resumes sell-off: Live updates (Oct 20)
- Kitco – Gold weaker as weak housing data offsets rising oil prices; ~93.6% odds of a hike by December
- Investing.com – U.S. pending home sales, September: −7.3% (est. −0.7%)
- Yahoo Finance – Home contract signings plunged in September amid higher mortgage rates
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (no high-impact U.S. data today)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,153–4,159 (stop 4,167 · TP1 4,144 → TP2 4,137) · buy the pullback 4,130–4,136 (stop 4,119 · TP1 4,146 → TP2 4,153). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~45%): the data momentum carries gold into 4,153–4,159 and it stalls into the London close – sell a red 45m/1H close.
- Alternative (~35%): the pop cools off, gold dips back to 4,130–4,136 and holds – buy a green 45m/1H close.
- Bear case for the plan (~20%): a 1H close above 4,167 – the short is wrong, step aside, next up 4,176–4,185. Or a 1H close under 4,119 – the data pop failed, no longs, back to the 4,111 low.
- Risk: no more U.S. data today; the 11:30 AM ET London close and the 1:30 PM ET Comex settle often reverse the morning move; API crude stocks at 4:30 PM ET. Houthi–Saudi and Hormuz headlines can whip gold $10–$15.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.