H79 Gold Plan – London Session, Oct 22: Oil Shock Knocks Gold to 4,067 – Sell 4,097–4,102, Buy the Sweep at 4,058–4,063
Looking back at Oct 21: The 4,130–4,135 sell zone never got a red confirming close – gold ran the 4,138 stop first and only then made the real move lower, so there was no short on. The 4,091–4,097 buy zone never got a green confirming close, and gold sliced through the 4,086 stop to 4,067 – sitting out was right. Lesson: in a down channel the short's stop belongs above the nearest swing high, with a buffer.
London Session Plan:
🔴 SELL 4,097–4,102 | Stop 4,106 | Targets 4,091 → 4,082
🟢 BUY 4,058–4,063 | Stop 4,051 | Targets 4,073 → 4,082
Confirm: only on a red (short) or green (long) 45m or 1H close in the zone.
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,106 cancels the short; below 4,051 cancels the long. Flat between 4,063 and 4,097.
Base case (~50%): a bounce into 4,097–4,102 fails – sell the red close.
Alternative (~30%): gold sweeps the 4,067 low into 4,058–4,063 – don't short the hole, buy the green close.
Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close above 4,106 – shorts are wrong, step aside; next up 4,112–4,118.
Note: 3:00 AM ET London open; 8:30 AM ET jobless claims (est. 200K) – take some off and move stops to breakeven before the print; 9:30 AM ET NYSE open; 10:00 AM ET Conference Board LEI.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 3:30 AM ET, Oct 22
Arrows: vs. prior close
Gold lost more than 1% overnight even with the dollar and the 10-year both lower – the problem is crude. The New York Times reported the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans to hit Iran again after the Nov. 3 midterms, Washington ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks mount, and Tehran told Pakistani mediators there are no talks – and no Hormuz reopening – until its demands are met. Brent jumped to $111.58. Hotter oil means stickier inflation, and the market prices about 90% odds of a December hike – right now gold trades as a rate-sensitive asset, not a war hedge. Equity futures are red and silver is falling harder than gold: money is leaving the whole metals complex. My view: the down channel is intact, rallies are for selling, and longs only on a retest of the lows with a confirming close.
Sources: CNBC (Reuters) – Gold drops over 1% as oil rally reinforces higher-for-longer rate outlook · CNBC – Oil prices jump as U.S., Israel reportedly weigh fresh Iran strikes · CNBC – U.S. pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia as renewed Iran strikes loom · Arab News – Iran to Pakistan's army chief: no talks with Washington before our demands are met · ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, est. 200K) · CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
Sources
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold drops over 1% as oil rally reinforces higher-for-longer rate outlook
- CNBC – Oil prices jump as U.S., Israel reportedly weigh fresh Iran strikes
- CNBC – U.S. pulls diplomats from Saudi Arabia as renewed Iran strikes loom
- Arab News – Iran to Pakistan's army chief: no talks with Washington before our demands are met
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, est. 200K)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,097–4,102 (stop 4,106 · TP1 4,091 → TP2 4,082) · buy 4,058–4,063 (stop 4,051 · TP1 4,073 → TP2 4,082). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close in the zone.
- Base case (~50%): London bounces into 4,097–4,102 and fails – sell a red 45m/1H close.
- Alternative (~30%): no bounce, gold sweeps the 4,067.66 low into 4,058–4,063 – don't chase it lower; buy a green 45m/1H close.
- Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close above 4,106 – shorts are wrong, step aside, next up 4,112–4,118. A 1H close under 4,051 cancels the long.
- Risk: U.S. jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET (est. 200K); Iran, Houthi and Saudi headlines can whip crude and gold $15–$20.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.