H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 22: $112 Oil Keeps Gold Under 4,100 – Sell 4,093–4,098, Buy the Sweep at 4,059–4,064
Looking back at the London session: The 4,097–4,102 sell zone never got tagged – the best bounce after the post was 4,093.91 before gold slid to 4,080.32, so the read was right but there was no short on. The 4,058–4,063 buy zone never came into play. Typically, after a flush the bounces get shorter – the sell zone belongs at the latest lower high, not the old one.
New York Session Plan:
🔴 SELL 4,093–4,098 | Stop 4,103 | Targets 4,082 → 4,068
🟢 BUY 4,059–4,064 | Stop 4,052 | Targets 4,076 → 4,088
Confirm: only on a red (short) or green (long) 45m or 1H close in the zone.
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,103 cancels the short; below 4,052 cancels the long. Flat between 4,064 and 4,093 – don't short the hole around 4,080.
Base case (~50%): claims or the opening bell lifts gold into 4,093–4,098 and it fails – sell the red close.
Alternative (~30%): gold keeps leaking and sweeps the 4,067 low into 4,059–4,064 – don't chase it lower, buy the green close.
Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close above 4,103 – shorts are wrong, step aside; next up 4,112–4,117.
Note: 8:30 AM ET jobless claims (est. 200K, prior 199K) – no high-impact U.S. data today, so this is the one to watch; take some off and move stops to breakeven before the print. 9:30 AM ET NYSE open; 10:00 AM ET Conference Board LEI. Iran, Houthi and Hormuz headlines can whip crude and gold $15–$20.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 22
Arrows: vs. prior close
The 10-year is back to 5.07% and the dollar is a touch softer, yet gold is still down almost $60 on the day – this is an oil story. The Houthis keep hitting Saudi Arabia, Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it set four tankers on fire in the Gulf and three more hit mines near Hormuz, and Brent is near $112, the highest since May. Expensive crude keeps inflation sticky, futures price about a 91% chance of a December hike, and gold is trading as a rate-sensitive asset – silver is down more than 3.5%. London chopped between 4,080 and 4,094 with every bounce lower than the last. My take: sellers still own this tape, but gold is already stretched below the lower BB90, so I'm not shorting 4,082 – sell a bounce, or wait for a sweep of 4,067 to buy.
Sources: CNBC (Reuters) – Gold hits over two-week low as oil rally fuels inflation worries · Reuters (Yahoo Finance) – Oil jumps on escalating Middle East conflict · Reuters (Euronext) – Oil jumps $2 on escalating Middle East tension · AP – World shares retreat as Brent crude price jumps 3% · ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, est. 200K; no high-impact U.S. data) · CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
Sources
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold hits over two-week low as oil rally fuels inflation worries
- Reuters (Yahoo Finance) – Oil jumps on escalating Middle East conflict
- Reuters (Euronext) – Oil jumps $2 on escalating Middle East tension
- AP – World shares retreat as Brent crude price jumps 3%
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, est. 200K; no high-impact U.S. data)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,093–4,098 (stop 4,103 · TP1 4,082 → TP2 4,068) · buy 4,059–4,064 (stop 4,052 · TP1 4,076 → TP2 4,088). Only on a confirming 45m/1H close in the zone.
- Base case (~50%): claims or the opening bell lifts gold into 4,093–4,098 and it fails – sell a red 45m/1H close.
- Alternative (~30%): gold keeps leaking and sweeps the 4,067.66 low into 4,059–4,064 – don't chase it lower; buy a green 45m/1H close.
- Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close above 4,103 – shorts are wrong, step aside, next up 4,112–4,117. A 1H close under 4,052 cancels the long.
- Risk: U.S. jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET (est. 200K); Iran, Houthi and Hormuz headlines can whip crude and gold $15–$20.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.