H79 Gold Plan – London Session, Oct 23: 4,000 Holds, but Bounces Are Still for Selling – Sell 4,033–4,039, Buy 4,005–4,010
Looking back at the overnight session: Last night's long at 4,059–4,064 filled at 4,062 on a green 45m close, and the very next bar ran the 4,052 stop – a $10 loss. The midday sell zone at 4,046–4,054 never got tagged; the bounce topped at 4,027 and sold off. After a big base breaks, the first bounce usually only fills the nearest gap – so the short moves closer this session.
Plan for the London session:
🔴 SELL 4,033–4,039 | Stop 4,047 | Targets 4,021 → 4,010
🟢 BUY 4,005–4,010 (quick trade) | Stop 3,996 | Targets 4,022 → 4,031
Entry: price taps the fair value gap and a 45m or 1H bar closes in our favor (red to sell, green to buy).
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,047 cancels the short; below 3,996 cancels the long – next stop 3,983–3,988.
Base case (~55%): a bounce fills the 4,033–4,039 gap and fails, back to 4,010–4,021.
Alternative (~30%): gold dips into the 4,005–4,010 gap and prints a green close – buy for a quick pop to 4,022.
Plan-breaker (~15%): a 1H close under 3,996 – no long; the 3,987.85 low likely gets retested.
Note: euro-zone and UK flash PMIs 3:15–4:30 AM ET; U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET and revised UMich 10:00 AM ET (no high-impact U.S. data). It's Friday and Iran/Houthi headlines can gap things – stay light and move stops to breakeven at TP1.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 2:45 AM ET, Oct 23
Arrows: vs. prior close
Gold is down about 3.5% on the week, on pace for its worst week since June, and this is still an oil story. The Houthis keep hitting Saudi Arabia, Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters, and Brent is up to $114.43. Expensive crude keeps inflation sticky, so even with the 10-year back near 4.98% the market is pricing a Fed that stays tight for longer – bad news for a metal that pays nothing. The dollar is flat at 101.69. Overnight gold flushed to 3,987.85 and got bought back above 4,000, the line dip buyers are trying to defend. My take: the trend is still down and a bounce into the 4,033–4,039 gap is a sale. I'll only buy a quick dip into 4,005–4,010 on a confirming close – the Fed meets next week and weekend headlines can gap this market.
Sources: CNBC (Reuters) – Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns · Reuters (Euronext) – Oil prices rise as supply concerns linger amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia · CNBC – 10-year Treasury yield drops below 5%, lowest in nearly a month · ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, revised UMich 10:00 AM ET; no high-impact U.S. data) · CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
Sources
- CNBC (Reuters) – Gold heads for steep weekly loss as oil prices fuel Fed rate concerns
- Reuters (Euronext) – Oil prices rise as supply concerns linger amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia
- CNBC – 10-year Treasury yield drops below 5%, lowest in nearly a month
- ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, revised UMich 10:00 AM ET; no high-impact U.S. data)
- CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,033–4,039 (stop 4,047 · TP1 4,021 → TP2 4,010) · buy 4,005–4,010 (stop 3,996 · TP1 4,022 → TP2 4,031). Gap tap plus a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~55%): a bounce fills the 4,033–4,039 gap and fails, back to 4,010–4,021.
- Alternative (~30%): a dip into the 4,005–4,010 gap prints a green close – buy for a quick pop to 4,022.
- Plan-breaker (~15%): a 1H close under 3,996 – no long, the 3,987.85 low likely gets retested; a close above 4,047 cancels the short, next up 4,048–4,054.
- Risk: U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, UMich 10:00 AM ET (no high-impact U.S. data); weekend Iran/Houthi headlines.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.