H79 Gold Plan – New York Session, Oct 23: Boxed In at 4,010–4,030 Ahead of PMIs – Sell 4,036–4,044, Buy 4,008–4,013
Looking back at the London session: London chopped inside a 4,010–4,030 box: the high at 4,029.99 stopped $3 short of the 4,033–4,039 sell zone and the 4,010.04 low barely kissed the top of the 4,005–4,010 buy zone. Neither order filled, so no position. A tight Friday London range usually breaks one way once New York gets its data, so the short moves up a notch.
New York Session Plan:
🔴 SELL 4,036–4,044 | Stop 4,052 | Targets 4,022 → 4,010
🟢 BUY 4,008–4,013 (quick trade) | Stop 3,998 | Targets 4,026 → 4,036
Entry: price taps the fair value gap and a 45m or 1H bar closes in our favor (red to sell, green to buy). Stand aside for 15 minutes around 9:45 AM ET.
Invalidation: a 1H close above 4,052 cancels the short – next up 4,063–4,074; a close under 3,998 cancels the long – the 3,987.85 low is back in play.
Base case (~50%): the PMI print pops gold into the 4,036–4,044 gap and it fails, back to 4,022–4,010.
Alternative (~30%): gold dips into the 4,008–4,013 gap and prints a green close – buy for a quick pop to 4,026.
Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close under 3,998 – no long; next stops 3,987.85, then 3,960.
Note: no high-impact U.S. data today – flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, revised UMich sentiment and inflation expectations 10:00 AM ET (medium impact); stocks open 9:30 AM ET. It's Friday, the Fed meets Oct. 27–28 and Iran/Houthi headlines can gap things – stay light and move stops to breakeven at TP1.
🌍 Market Picture
As of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 23
Arrows: vs. prior close
Gold is still on track for its worst week since June, down about 3.5%, and it's the same story: Brent is near $115, a five-month high, after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Pricey crude keeps inflation sticky, and CME FedWatch has a December hike at roughly 81% – a tough backdrop for a metal that pays nothing. The 10-year is back up to 4.99%, the dollar is at 101.76 and S&P futures are off 0.35% ahead of the open. What's holding gold up is 4,000: buyers defended it after the 3,987.85 flush, and London just chopped 4,010–4,030. My take: the trend is still down, and if the PMIs pop gold into 4,036–4,044, I'm a seller. I'll only buy a quick dip into 4,008–4,013 on a confirming close – the Fed meets next week and weekend headlines can gap this market.
Sources: CNBC (Reuters) – Gold off three-month lows as oil rally fans inflation worries · TRT World – Gold weakens as inflation fears mount, oil and gas prices jump · ForexFactory – Economic calendar (U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, revised UMich 10:00 AM ET; no high-impact U.S. data) · CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)
Sources
More details
🧭 Plan & scenarios
- The plan: sell 4,036–4,044 (stop 4,052 · TP1 4,022 → TP2 4,010) · buy 4,008–4,013 (stop 3,998 · TP1 4,026 → TP2 4,036). Gap tap plus a confirming 45m/1H close.
- Base case (~50%): the PMI print pops gold into the 4,036–4,044 gap and it fails, back to 4,022–4,010.
- Alternative (~30%): a dip into the 4,008–4,013 gap prints a green close – buy for a quick pop to 4,026.
- Plan-breaker (~20%): a 1H close under 3,998 – no long, next 3,987.85 then 3,960; a close above 4,052 cancels the short, next up 4,063–4,074.
- Risk: U.S. flash PMIs 9:45 AM ET, UMich 10:00 AM ET (no high-impact U.S. data); the Fed meets Oct. 27–28; weekend Iran/Houthi headlines.
💡 Our take
Trade the plan, not the noise.
Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.
⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.