🎯 H79 Gold Plan· Ngọc Huy

H79 Gold Weekly Recap, Oct. 19–23: Gold Sheds 4.1% and Closes Under $4,000 – Next Week Sell 4,028–4,040 Into the Fed

How this week's plans played out: The H79 plans went 3 for 6 this week: the Oct. 20 Asian-session short hit both targets and two longs on Oct. 19–20 hit TP1, while three trades got stopped on Oct. 21–22 as gold broke the 4,100 base. Several short zones had the direction right but the bounces stopped $3–9 shy of the entry, so no position for the biggest leg down; on Friday the 4,008–4,013 long zone only printed red bars, so we stayed out and dodged the flush to 3,978. In a strong downtrend, bounces usually run shorter than you'd expect – so next week's short zone sits closer, and longs stay small and need a confirming close.

Key levels and scenarios for the week of Oct. 26:
Resistance: 4,005–4,017 (1–2H gap) · 4,028–4,046 (23.6% Fib + 4H gap) · 4,052–4,058 (4H gap + 38.2% Fib) · 4,083 (50% Fib) · 4,106 (top of the daily gap)
Support: 3,978 (weekly low) · 3,943 (June 30 low) · 3,921 (127.2% extension) · 3,848 (161.8% extension)
Base case (~50%): an early-week bounce into 4,028–4,040 gets sold ahead of the Fed, back to 4,000, then 3,955.
Alternative (~30%): crude keeps climbing and the Fed stays hawkish – gold slices through 3,978 into 3,940–3,950; buy a quick bounce only on a green close.
Plan-breaker for shorts (~20%): a softer Fed or a cool PCE – a 4H close above 4,060 cancels the short and opens 4,083–4,106.

Contingency plan for the week of Oct. 26:
🔴 SELL 4,028–4,040 | Stop 4,060 | Targets 4,000 → 3,955
🟢 BUY 3,940–3,950 (quick trade, small size) | Stop 3,918 | Targets 3,978 → 4,005
Entry: price taps the zone and a 1H or 4H bar closes in our favor (red to sell, green to buy). No chasing shorts under 4,000.
Invalidation: a 4H close above 4,060 cancels the short – next up 4,083, then 4,106; a daily close under 3,918 cancels the long – next down 3,848.
High-impact U.S. events (ET): Wed Oct. 28 – FOMC decision 2:00 PM (expected hold at 3.75–4.00%), Powell presser 2:30 PM; Thu Oct. 29 – Q3 advance GDP (est. 3.2%) and core PCE (est. +0.3% m/m) at 8:30 AM. No new trades 30 minutes either side.
Note: take 50–70% at TP1 and move the stop to breakeven. A U.S. envoy floated a possible strike on Iran this weekend and Israel votes Oct. 27 – the Sunday 6:00 PM ET open could gap, so wait for a confirming bar.

Gold daily chart, week of Oct 19–23: week high 4,188.92, low 3,978.13, close 3,994.65; Fibonacci 4,188.92–3,978.13, unfilled daily and 4H fair value gaps; sell zone 4,028–4,040, buy zone 3,940–3,950
Bias: 🔻 Intermediate-term bearish – $116 Brent keeps a Fed hike priced in and gold closed the week under $4,000; sell a bounce into 4,028–4,040, buy only a quick flush into 3,940–3,950 on a confirming close
🔴 SELL zone 4,028–4,040 | SL 4,060 | TP1 4,000 → TP2 3,955
🟢 BUY zone 3,940–3,950 | SL 3,918 | TP1 3,978 → TP2 4,005
⚠️ Key risk: High-impact U.S. events: FOMC Wed Oct. 28 2:00 PM ET, presser 2:30 PM ET; Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu Oct. 29 8:30 AM ET. Only on a zone tap plus a confirming 1H/4H close; stops to breakeven at TP1. A 4H close above 4,060 cancels the short; a daily close under 3,918 cancels the long.
💲 ✅ Spot XAU/USD prices

🌍 Market Picture

XAU 3,994.65 −0.73%XAU week −169.87 (−4.08%)DXY 101.75 +0.14%US10Y 4.999%US2Y 4.686%Brent 116.72 +3.1%WTI 103.44 +4.0%S&P 500 7,623.7 −0.52%Silver 53.89 −1.17%

Arrows: vs. prior close

Gold lost about 4.1% this week, from 4,164.61 to a 3,994.65 close – its first trip under $4,000 since mid-July and its worst week since June. The root of it is crude: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia kept coming and Brent ran 6.2% on the week to $116.72, its highest settle since late April. That's showing up in the data – the PMI selling-price gauge rose at its fastest pace since August 2022 and UMich one-year inflation expectations hit 4.7% – so the market still has roughly 75% odds on a December hike. Here's the tell: the 10-year actually fell 11 bps on the week and gold still got hit. The AI selloff sent money into Treasuries, not bullion, and gold got sold to cover margin calls. When gold can't rally on lower yields, the bulls are in real trouble. My take: the 4,100–4,150 base is broken and $4,000 is now resistance. Next week I'm selling rallies into 4,028–4,040 and I'm not bottom-fishing before the Fed on Wednesday.

Sources: CNBC (Reuters) – Gold set for steep weekly loss as rising oil prices bolster Fed rate hike bets · CNBC – Brent settles at $116.72, third straight weekly gain · Investing.com – U.S. business activity cools in October; selling prices rise at fastest pace since August 2022 · CNBC – U.S. Treasury yields · Investing.com – Fed Rate Monitor · Dow Jones Market Data (via Morningstar) – Comex gold ends the week 4.05% lower · ForexFactory – Economic calendar, week of Oct. 26 (FOMC, GDP, PCE) · CNBC – Spot gold (XAU=)

Sources

More details

🧭 Plan & scenarios

  • The plan: sell 4,028–4,040 (stop 4,060 · TP1 4,000 → TP2 3,955) · buy 3,940–3,950 (stop 3,918 · TP1 3,978 → TP2 4,005). Zone tap plus a confirming 1H/4H close.
  • Base case (~50%): an early-week bounce into 4,028–4,040 fails ahead of the Fed, back to 4,000, then 3,955.
  • Alternative (~30%): gold slices through 3,978 into 3,940–3,950 and prints a green close – buy for a quick pop to 3,978.
  • Plan-breaker (~20%): a 4H close above 4,060 cancels the short, next up 4,083–4,106; a daily close under 3,918 cancels the long, next down 3,848.
  • Risk: FOMC Wed 2:00 PM ET, presser 2:30 PM ET; Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 8:30 AM ET; weekend Iran headlines, Israel votes Oct. 27.

💡 Our take

Trade the plan, not the noise.

Technical analysis for educational purposes only – not investment advice.

⚠ For information and education only – not investment advice. Trading gold and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.

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